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July 4, 2008
It’s one of those blink-if-you-miss-it moments, the instant at which a once-great player slips through the doorway that takes him from dominant to rapidly declining. One inning they’re in their prime, the next it’s a question of how soon they come off a team’s books or whether they can be packaged away into oblivion. Okay, so it doesn’t quite happen that fast, but its happening all the time and here are some instances to look out for during the remainder of 2008 and into 2009.
Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
He’s hurdling towards 35 and still playing the most athletically demanding position in the game. His average is below .280 this year and as demonstrated Thursday night against the Red Sox, his ability to turn mildly challenging double plays is waning. Friday night he gets a rest and well, the rest might be history. Of course Jeter can still play, but the best of No. 2 is a memory, and we might just start to realize that more and more each game.
Jason Varitek, Boston Red Sox
This may come as a shock to Boston fans, but the man is not invincible. Despite catching an MLB record four no-hitters, he’s on the wrong side of 35 and well, plays the absolute worst position for someone youthfully challenged. The .218 (coming off seasons of .238 and .255) batting average might suggest as much, and you could probably just as soon apply this argument to the Yankees’ Jorge Posada. It happens real quickly to catchers, just look at Ivan Rodriguez. The good news? The crew cut won’t be affected.
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Alright, alright, so this one might still need a bit of ripening. I love Ich as much as anyone and he’s never dipped below .300 for a season in the eight he’s spent in Seattle. Still, there are some signs. For one, he’ turning 35 in October. Hardly a death nail, but the numbers traditionally support the idea that a decline will follow soon thereafter. More importantly, he’s played an awful lot of baseball. Even putting aside the many, many games and hits he accumulated in Japan, the man has missed only 18 games in seven full big league seasons. Few people, even freaks like Suzuki, can keep that pace up unabated.
Michael Young, Texas Rangers
One of the game’s purest hitters, or at least one of baseball's most reliable plate men during the last five years. But Young can’t do it forever, even as he’s headed for another year of 200 hits or so. According to some who according to others know what they’re talking about, his bat speed is down this year. Once that goes, look out below. Again, playing in the middle of the infield isn’t helping the decline, although batting in Texas and anywhere near Josh Hamilton should balance that out nicely.
Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants
Just kidding, Zito’s been done for a while...
The Los Angeles Dodgers
Another trick! They’re all old!
Carlos Lee, Houston Astros
While contemplating a Lee for Carl Crawford fantasy keeper league swap (I had Lee, wanted Crawford and ultimately made the trade) I noticed something: the 32-year-old outfielder has never hit 40 home runs in a season. Maybe this shouldn’t have surprised me, but it did. Don’t you see Carlos Lee as a 40-dinger guy? Maybe not every year, but at least once or twice in a career that’s spanned four teams and is going on 10 full seasons. Even more staggering is the fact that Lee’s career high OBP is just .366. He may not trip off that pace in 2008, especially playing in Houston, but it seems to me that Lee may have always been a slight underachiever, meaning his descent into mediocrity might come even sooner, and faster than we would otherwise expect.
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